January 5, 2026 Market Moment

Market Moment

Glen Eagle®: America’s Women-Owned Trading Desk®

1/5/2026

Venezuela holds the world’s largest estimated oil reserves—about 17% of global supply—yet production has collapsed since the oil industry was nationalized. Output has fallen from nearly 3.5 million barrels per day in the 1970s (over 7% of global supply) to about 1.1 million barrels per day last year, roughly equivalent to production from the U.S. state of North Dakota. 1
Most investors assume the primary difference between large-cap and small-cap companies is size, but profitability is also a distinction. Profit margins for the S&P 100 have risen to 15.7%, while S&P 600 small-cap margins remain near 5.9%. *2
U.S. equities have been resilient despite volatility. Since 2019, the S&P 500 has posted gains in 6 of the past 7 years, including +24.9% (2024), and +19.4% (2025), with 2022 the lone setback at -18.0%. *3
If history is any guide, 2026 may be less favorable for equities. During midterm election years, the S&P 500 has finished higher only 53% of the time with an average gain of 4.6%, compared with a 78% success rate and roughly 11% average gains in the other years of the presidential cycle. *4

Reuters – “Venezuela’s Oil and Mining Sectors: Large Potential, Weak Infrastructure”
A Wealth of Common Sense – “Animal Spirits: The Best Performing Stocks of 2025”
A Wealth of Common Sense – “The Biggest Risk in 2026”
Barron’s – “The Stock Market Won’t Be Worth Celebrating in 2026”

*Past performance is not indicative of future performance

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This desk commentary is for informational purposes only

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