March 17, 2026 Market Moment

Market Moment

Glen Eagle®: America’s Women-Owned Trading Desk®

3/17/2026

Midterm years tend to bring more downside volatility. The S&P 500’s median peak-to-trough decline is around 18% during midterm years (vs ~10% in non-midterm years), with 10%+ corrections occurring ~70% of the time. *1
Microsoft has fallen ~28% since July, erasing ~$1T in market value as AI concerns drive sentiment. This is its cheapest MSFT stock has been relative to the S&P 500 in a decade, a level last seen in January 2023 before a ~73% rally over the following 12 months. *2
Tax refunds are rising, with the average refund ~$3,742, up more than 10% year over year. 3
Adjustable-rate mortgages are gaining popularity, with nearly half of $1M+ mortgages now ARMs. An ARM mortgage offering ~5.3% rates vs ~6.1% for a 30-year fixed mortgage would save someone around $500/month on a $1M loan. 4

MFS – “Beyond the News”
Barron’s – “Microsoft Stock Hasn’t Been This Cheap in a Decade. It’s Time to Buy.”
Barron’s – “Tax Refunds Are Bigger This Year. How to Invest It Wisely.”
MarketWatch – “Nearly half of new $1M+ mortgages are ARMs”

*Past performance is not indicative of future performance

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This desk commentary is for informational purposes only

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